Four Trends Shaping EMIA Metals and Mining in 2026
From deep-sea mining to metal farms or even mining the moon, rarely has the future of the metals and mining industry been of so much interest to the general press.
This wave of interest is the consequence of two factors: first, in a context of international tensions in which key commodities have become contested resources, countries and blocs are moving aggressively to secure supply, via either trade agreements or protectionism.
Second, these tensions have served as a reminder of the central role of metals and mining in numberless critical applications, from smartphones to wind turbines, from military communication devices to electric vehicles, with global supply often depending on a handful of exporting nations.
If the decade’s early years were marked by uncertainty, we are starting to see a new expansion cycle. However, companies have learned from previous cycles and adopted new strategies: greater maturity and discipline in capital projects, a focus on productivity in existing assets, the mainstreaming of automation and AI and greater auditability.
In light of these priorities, here’s how we see 2026 unfold.
1. A New Boom in Capital Projects
After years of underinvestment, mining capital spending is rising again. Global investment reached $186 billion in 2024 and must hit roughly $260 billion a year through 2035 to meet demand for energy-transition metals and materials for defense and data centers. Governments are also eager to fast-track supply chains: The EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act sets extraction targets within the region and simplifies permitting for strategic projects, while the Steel and Metals Action Plan encompasses a variety of measures to strengthen the European industry.
The challenge is not funding as much as execution. The 2006-2013 boom-and-bust has shown the financial risks of projects being delivered late in the cycle or taking too long to reach full capacity, leaving some players in high debt and forced to sell assets for a fraction of the money invested.
Projects now need faster commissioning and tighter budgets, pushing adoption of tools that accelerate delivery and enforce control, such as project digital twins and enterprise applications offering project performance monitoring, risk assessment and budget forecasting.
For example, on a large mine project, Vale recently used a suite of digital solutions by Hexagon to centrally manage engineering data and speed up the execution phase . By using 3D visualization and review tools, Vale managed to detect clashes in the early design stages, greatly reducing rework during the construction phase.
One lesson from past projects is not to underestimate critical phases such as commissioning. McKinsey cites a copper mine where the commissioning plan wasn’t aligned with the construction process, leading to a delayed ramp-up to full production capacity. To avoid this, more projects now treat commissioning as a parallel workstream integrated with construction and operations, a practice likely to keep expanding.
2. An ‘Intense Focus’ on the Productivity of Existing Asset
Along with disciplined growth, McKinsey found that the other marker of long-term company performance was top-quartile asset productivity. This finding echoes a recent survey by EY identified an “intense focus on costs and productivity” as a defining trend for 2026.
This focus is a necessary response to a deteriorating physical landscape. Declining ore grades and geological variability are naturally reducing asset output and driving up unit costs. At the same time, retiring workforce and skill shortages are hampering efficiency.
This renewed focus is driving investment in technology and process improvements that raise capacity and reduce labor dependence. Automation, field digitization and remote operations are expanding. Anglo American Platinum, for instance, digitized shift logs and production reports, cutting manual data entry by 70 percent and enabling real-time visibility.
Efforts to improve labor productivity also target wasteful maintenance practices. GlobalData reports that half of mining companies plan to invest in predictive maintenance in the next two years, with cloud-based monitoring, digital twins, and machine learning already common in maintenance functions.
3. Cybersecurity as a Precondition for AI and Remote Operations
The growing adoption of remote operation technologies represents a major concern for cybersecurity experts, particularly after a series of high-profile cyberattacks in the past three years.
Since the landmark data breach at Rio Tinto in 2023, cyberattacks in the mining industry have tripled over a single year. Recent cases at Nucor and Eastern Platinum showed limited disruption to production operations, thanks to the two companies’ solid defenses and containment measures. However, many companies are less prepared to such events, particularly among smaller firms. A recent global review of mining cybersecurity found low adoption of information security standards, asset management and business continuity plans.
Beyond traditional IT targets, a growing concern is the exposure of operational technology (OT) and industrial control systems (ICS). As mines automate extraction, haulage and processing, these systems now sit closer to corporate networks, often without effective segmentation. While providing OT data to corporate functions can provide opportunities for process analysis and optimization, it can also entail risks of unauthorized access, malware propagation, and potential disruption of critical operations through compromised networks.
Many operators also lack comprehensive asset inventories and struggle to patch or monitor remote installations.
Two factors will push the issue to the forefront in 2026. First, under the EU’s NIS2 directive, many mining and metals firms will be classified as important or essential entities, with strict obligations for risk management, rapid incident reporting and state-of-the-art protection. This will drive investment in OT monitoring, configuration control and incident recovery.
Second, the sector’s growing strategic value and its role in critical supply chains make it a likely target for state-linked threat actors. For commodities produced at only a few sites – e.g. rare earths, lithium, cobalt - a prolonged outage could have global consequences.
4. A Testing Year for Anything Green
The NIS2 directive is not the only regulation that will have a strong impact on 2026. The year will be the first in which the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will enter its definitive regime after a three-year transition phase, with significant impact on steel and aluminum supply chains.
The EU is less lonely on this topic than it once was. Today, 80 countries have implemented carbon pricing or emissions trading schemes, up from just 10 in 2005, even though most have prices well below the EU’s.
However, 2026 could expose the tension between decarbonization goals and industry competitiveness. The sector is weakened by high energy prices, global overcapacity and tariffs. The recent financial difficulties of low-carbon steel start-up Stegra and the faltering of several green steel projects have served as a reminder that full decarbonization is still a long and uncertain journey.
Rather than a rapid green steel revolution, what can be expected is a ratcheting up of emissions-reduction targets. For example, today, the EU asks steelmakers to cut their emissions, which account for 5% of the bloc’s total, by 55% by 2030 compared to the 1990 baseline.
For miners and manufacturers alike, this context makes it essential to build a digital thread of operations that enables consistent carbon accounting, third-party verification and alignment with standards such as ISO 14064 for the management of greenhouse gas emissions. Another priority is using this data to identify emissions-reduction strategies that are both affordable and effective.
Final thoughts
That can seem like stacking priorities on top of priorities if the objectives of becoming greener, safer, more secure and more productive are treated as competing pressures. However, in practice, all these trends point to a common shift in the operating model, with a data thread that supports better projects, connected workers, remote operations and emissions reporting - from pit to port, mine to metal and raw material to refined product.